Happy Talk

[preddy08]

We need alot more of this kinda talk. Please pass it on.

The "dismal science" of economics typically focuses on "bad" news. We clearly face
many significant challenges...no argument here. However, there are also many favorable
developments taking place within the U.S. economy. This is our semi-annual update of
"Happy Talk." This Tea Leaf focuses ONLY on the "good" news...
The consensus of forecasting

• For every dollar of U.S. economic
output generated today, we burn less
than half as much oil as 30 years ago
• U.S. stock prices have risen roughly
25% during the past five weeks, the
strongest rally in more than 70 years.
The stock market—typically focused
6-9 months ahead—sees a return to
U.S. economic growth
• U.S. military deaths in Iraq during
2008 plunged by two-thirds versus the
prior year
• The U.S. trade deficit with the world fell
for the seventh straight month in February
to a nine-year low of $26 billion
• The number of illegal immigrants
in the U.S. declined by an estimated
1.3 million (to 11.2 million) between
August 2007 and May 2008. Stronger
enforcement and fewer job opportunities
contributed to the decline
• Children's deaths from unintentional
injury have dropped by almost 40%
since 1987. Bicycle deaths fell 60%,
while firearms-related deaths fell 72%
• Roughly 30% of trash was recycled
or composted in the latest year, versus
16% in 1990
• A record 50.5 million foreigners
visited the U.S. during 2008
• Men's contribution to housework has
doubled over the past 40 years, while
their time spent on child care has tripled
• The number of miners killed on the
job in the U.S. fell to 51 during 2008,
the lowest since recordkeeping began
nearly a century ago
• Seat belt usage by Americans was at
82% in 2007, versus 49% in 1990 and
14% in 1983
he consensus of forecasting • economists
still expects a return to positive (not
impressive, but positive) U.S. economic
growth during this year's third quarter
• Between 1980 and 2007, total emissions
of major air pollutants within the
U.S. dropped by 52%
• The number of people who have quit
smoking (46 million) now exceeds the
number who still smoke (45 million).
Roughly 21% of adults smoke today,
versus nearly half in the early 1950s
• A recent poll of more than 12,000 global
business figures conducted by the World
Economic Forum ranked the U.S. as the
world's most competitive economy
• Traffic deaths per 100 million miles
traveled during 2008 were the lowest
on record
• Conventional thirty-year fixed-rate
mortgages have been between 4.75%
and 5.15% in recent weeks, some of
the lowest levels on record
• The number of new cancer cases and
deaths are falling for the first time
since the government began compiling
a report on long-term trends
• U.S. exports to China have risen
roughly 24% per year since 2001,
making China the fastest growing
market for U.S. goods
• Incomes for the poorest one-fifth of all
earners have grown an average of 3.9%
annually since 1994, slightly outpacing
the 3.4%-3.6% average gain of those in
the middle three-fifths of incomes
• Average U.S. life expectancy has
reached 78 years (men 75, women 80),
the highest ever. This compares to 76
years in 1995, 68 years in 1950, and 47
years in 1900
• A record 29% of men have earned a
bachelor's degree or higher, versus
26% of women, also a record. This
compares to a combined 7.7% in
1960. A record 84.6% of adults over
age 25 now have at least a high school
diploma, versus 24.5% in 1940
• The number of people using public transportation
hit a 52-year high during 2008
• Violent crime declined 3.5% during
2008's first half versus the prior year.
Violent crime overall is down 55%
since 1993, with violence by teens
down 71%. School violence has
declined by half from a decade ago
• Donations to charity set an all-time high
in 2007, with more than $300 billion
donated by individuals, foundations, and
corporations. As a percentage of GDP,
Americans gave twice as much as the
next most charitable nation...England
• Productivity of the average U.S. worker
rose an average of 2.6% annually during
the past 10 years, the largest gains in 40
years. Rising productivity is a long-term
key to higher standards of living
• No passenger died in commercial air
travel accidents in 2007 and 2008, a period
when commercial airliners carried
1.5 billion passengers. Unfortunately,
that string was broken this year
• Air pollution declined 25% over the
past 30 years even as the population and
the economy grew. Water quality also
continues to improve. More progress
will occur in coming years as companies
see rising value in "going green"
• Alcohol-related traffic fatalities in the
most recently reported year dropped by
more than half versus 20 years ago
• The number of homeless people declined
by an estimated 12% between 2005 and
2007, with an even larger decline in
those who are chronically homeless
• The upward "mobility" of the typical
American remains the greatest in the
world. Why? The U.S. economy
"rewards" the combination of hard
work and educational achievement
more than ever before...and more than
any other country in the world
• During the early 1960s, the five-year
survival rate from cancer for Americans
was one in three. Today it is two
in three...continuing to climb...and
the highest in the world
• Substantiated cases of childhood
sexual abuse have fallen 49% since
1990. Physical abuse of children is
down by 43%
• More than three million girls participated
in high school sports last year, part of a
record 7.3 million total participants
• The number of abortions performed in
this country has declined by one-third
since 1990 and is now at a record low
• The U.S. rate of home ownership
reached 69.2% of households in recent
quarters, the highest ever, before
declining slightly
• Women earned nearly 60% of all
bachelor's degrees awarded in recent
years, versus 43% in 1970 and 24% in
1950. Women earned a similar share
of master's degrees
• Illicit drug use among U.S. teenagers
hit a five-year low of 9.8% in 2006,
down 16% since 2002
• U.S. teen pregnancy and birth rates
plummeted to all-time lows in recent
years, before a slight rise. The
reasons? More widespread use of birth
control, more work opportunities, and
more girls who "just say no"
• Flexible work schedules are now the
norm for 43% of workers, up from
29% in 1992 and 13% in 1985. This
allows greater flexibility for more
people, especially those with children
• Police officer deaths from gunfire
during 2008 were the lowest in more
than 50 years
• The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has
actually declined 0.4% during the
most recent 12-month period—the first
12-month decline since 1955—helping
to stretch consumer incomes
• The U.S. role of dominance in the global
economy in recent years has been as
clear-cut as at any time since the 1950s

[Krandall]

Awesome! nice post preddy.

[wobble]

Nice post! Interesting stuff. 

[Flynbyu]

Great news.

Thanks for posting it up!

~Brian

[Peelz]

wow preddy, you are not all just meth and bukakke. 

great post.

[Flynbyu]

Mmmmm Ba-cockie.



~Brian

[Peelz]

Mmmmm Ba-cockie.



~Brian

[preddy08]

Ummmm Bu-Bookkake

[Flynbyu]

Special thanks to the Bush Administration...

<duck>

Who threw that shoe?



~Brian